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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estrela cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arouca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela beat Arouca 3-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.88 xG and Arouca 1.40 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Estrela beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Arouca attack 1.01 / defence 1.52, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 48% | Draw 23% | Arouca 28%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 35%, Arouca 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.87 PPG, Arouca 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights