Estrela vs Arouca – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Estrela edge out Arouca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela beat Arouca 2-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.73 xG and Arouca 1.06 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Arouca attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 53% | Draw 24% | Arouca 23%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 48%, Arouca 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.91 PPG, Arouca 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights