Estrela 2-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estrela at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estrela face Arouca.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio José Gomes to face Estrela in Primeira Liga (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Monday 9 December 2024 at 20:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Estrela have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Estrela's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Arouca's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Arouca have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Estrela, 0.80 for Arouca — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Arouca edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Estrela 0–0 Arouca — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 48% versus Arouca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 48% | Arouca 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.73 xG and Arouca 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 1.043 / defence 1.165 | Arouca attack 0.836 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.090. Data: built from Estrela's last 46 games and Arouca's last 46.
Result probabilities: Estrela 53% | Draw 24% | Arouca 23%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 1.89 | Draw 4.21 | Arouca 4.30. Estrela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estrela as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estrela if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estrela's last 10 home games and Arouca's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estrela 50% (last 10 home games) | Arouca 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Monday 9 December 2024 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 53% | Draw 24% | Arouca 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Estrela 1.73 / Arouca 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 1.043 / def 1.165 | Arouca attack 0.836 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Estrela (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Arouca xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estrela vs Arouca FAQs
What time does Estrela vs Arouca kick off?
Estrela vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Monday 9 December 2024 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Arouca?
Estrela 2 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Estrela vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Arouca part of?
Estrela vs Arouca is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 53% chance of winning, Arouca a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estrela and Arouca will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estrela vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Estrela's attack rating (1.04) and Arouca's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.84x) against Estrela's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Estrela's last 46 games and Arouca's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.21
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.79
1.06
Arouca xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
24.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estrela vs Arouca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Estrela and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Estrela and 1.06 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Estrela have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 9W 15D 22L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Arouca's form line: 15W 9D 22L from 46 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Estrela against 1.17 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estrela have posted 1.26 PPG from their last 23 home games (8W 5D 10L).
On the road, Arouca have gone 7W 5D 11L from their last 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estrela are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.30 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Arouca
Blended
Estrela (Home) vs Arouca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estrela
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Estrela vs Arouca Form FAQs
What form are Estrela and Arouca in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 9W 15D 22L in their last 46 games (0.91 PPG), while Arouca have gone 15W 9D 22L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Arouca away?
Estrela's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.26 PPG; Arouca away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Arouca have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won Estrela 1-4 Arouca on 28 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estrela have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Estrela
1
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Estrela vs Arouca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Arouca?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Estrela have won 2, Arouca have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estrela and Arouca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Arouca 1-0 Estrela.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 56%, Arouca 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Estrela and 61% for Arouca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estrela have failed to score in 26% of games; Arouca in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estrela vs Arouca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estrela and Arouca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Estrela's recent matches and 52% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estrela and Arouca matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Estrela's matches and 61% of Arouca's.
Do Estrela and Arouca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Estrela's recent matches and 74% of Arouca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estrela edge out Arouca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estrela beat Arouca 2-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.73 xG and Arouca 1.06 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Arouca attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 53% | Draw 24% | Arouca 23%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 48%, Arouca 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 0.91 PPG, Arouca 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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