Estrela 0-2 Academico Viseu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estrela at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs Academico Viseu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Gomes plays host to Estrela versus Academico Viseu in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Estrela (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Estrela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estrela's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estádio José Gomes this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Academico Viseu's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Academico Viseu have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Academico Viseu away from home this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Estrela against 1.33 for Academico Viseu. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 83%.
Academico Viseu half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estrela 100% and Academico Viseu 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Estrela 100% | Academico Viseu 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.70 xG and Academico Viseu 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 1.195 / defence 1.015 | Academico Viseu attack 0.997 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.320. Data: 40 Estrela games / 6 Academico Viseu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 46% | Draw 24% | Academico Viseu 30%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Academico Viseu 3.33. Estrela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estrela at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estrela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estrela 50% | Academico Viseu 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Academico Viseu | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 46% | Draw 24% | Academico Viseu 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Estrela 1.70 / Academico Viseu 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 1.195 / def 1.015 | Academico Viseu attack 0.997 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Estrela (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Academico Viseu xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Academico Viseu kick off?
Estrela vs Academico Viseu kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
Estrela 0 - 2 Academico Viseu.
Where is Estrela vs Academico Viseu being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Academico Viseu part of?
Estrela vs Academico Viseu is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 46% chance of winning, Academico Viseu a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Estrela and Academico Viseu will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Academico Viseu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Academico Viseu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estrela and Academico Viseu in?
Estrela (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Academico Viseu (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estrela's attack rating (1.20) and Academico Viseu's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Academico Viseu's attack (1.00x) against Estrela's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.22
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Estrela xG
Total xG
3.04
1.34
Academico Viseu xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Estrela and Academico Viseu expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Estrela and 1.34 for Academico Viseu, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Estrela have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 2W 4D 0L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Estrela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Academico Viseu's form line: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Academico Viseu, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Estrela against 1.33 for Academico Viseu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Estrela have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
On the road, Academico Viseu have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Estrela are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Academico Viseu are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estrela have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Early Season
Academico Viseu
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Academico Viseu in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 2W 4D 0L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Academico Viseu have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Academico Viseu away?
Estrela's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.67 PPG; Academico Viseu away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Estrela
0
Draws
1
Academico Viseu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Academico Viseu?
From 1 meetings on record, Estrela have won 0, Academico Viseu have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Academico Viseu last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Estrela 0-2 Academico Viseu.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Academico Viseu?
Academico Viseu have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Academico Viseu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Estrela, 67% for Academico Viseu — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Estrela and 67% for Academico Viseu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Academico Viseu in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Academico Viseu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Academico Viseu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Estrela's games and 67% of Academico Viseu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estrela vs Academico Viseu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Estrela's matches and 67% of Academico Viseu's.
Do Estrela and Academico Viseu tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Academico Viseu in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Academico Viseu cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estrela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Academico Viseu beat Estrela 0-2 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.70 xG and Academico Viseu 1.34 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estrela fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 1.20 / defence 1.01 against Academico Viseu attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 46% | Draw 24% | Academico Viseu 30%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Academico Viseu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 100%, Academico Viseu 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Academico Viseu's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 1.67 PPG, Academico Viseu 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Academico Viseu win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Academico Viseu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.