Estoril 2-2 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vizela make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Vizela have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Estoril's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Estoril have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Vizela in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Estoril 1W, Vizela 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 0–3 with Vizela winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Vizela — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 41% versus Vizela 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 41% | Vizela 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.63 xG and Vizela 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.964 / defence 0.941 | Vizela attack 0.908 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.202. Data: 39 Estoril games / 39 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 52% | Draw 25% | Vizela 24%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Vizela 4.17. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Estoril 30% | Vizela 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 52% | Draw 25% | Vizela 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Estoril 1.63 / Vizela 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.964 / def 0.941 | Vizela attack 0.908 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Estoril (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Vizela xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Vizela kick off?
Estoril vs Vizela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Vizela?
Estoril 2 - 2 Vizela.
Where is Estoril vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Vizela part of?
Estoril vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 52% chance of winning, Vizela a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estoril and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Vizela?
Record (4 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 1 | Vizela 2W.
What form are Estoril and Vizela in?
Estoril (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Vizela (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estoril's attack at 0.96x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.91x) against Estoril's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
52%
1.94
25%
4.05
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.66
1.03
Vizela xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
5%
21.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Estoril and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Estoril and 1.03 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 5D 23L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vizela sit at 1.13 PPG from 39 outings (12W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Estoril against 1.13 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Estoril's home form reads 8W 2D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vizela have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.03 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Early Season
Vizela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Vizela in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 11W 5D 23L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Vizela have gone 12W 8D 19L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Vizela away?
Estoril's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.37 PPG; Vizela away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Estoril or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Vizela in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vizela won 0-3 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estoril
3
Draws
2
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Estoril have won 1, Vizela have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Vizela 3-3 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Vizela?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 37%, Vizela 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Estoril) and 37% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vizela in 32%; Estoril have failed to score in 32% of games; Vizela in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Estoril's recent matches and 37% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Estoril's recent games and 37% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Vizela tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Vizela in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril and Vizela share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril and Vizela finished level at 2-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.63 xG and Vizela 1.03 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vizela outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Vizela attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 52% | Draw 25% | Vizela 24%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 41%, Vizela 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 0.97 PPG, Vizela 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.