Chaves 2-2 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chaves face Estrela.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Estrela travel to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira to take on Chaves in Primeira Liga (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chaves stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Chaves at home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 7 games, Estrela have recorded 2W 1D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Estrela away from home: 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chaves 0.90 PPG, Estrela 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Chaves's games and 67% of Estrela's (from Chaves's last 10 home games and Estrela's last 3 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Chaves in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Estrela in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 57% versus Estrela 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 71% | Estrela 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.56 xG and Estrela 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.944 / defence 1.329 | Estrela attack 0.741 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.178. Estrela's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Chaves's defence rating of 1.329 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estrela's projected output up. Data: built from Chaves's last 39 games and Estrela's last 5.
Result probabilities: Chaves 47% | Draw 25% | Estrela 28%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.15 | Draw 3.98 | Estrela 3.53. Chaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chaves at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chaves's last 10 home games and Estrela's last 3 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chaves 60% (last 10 home games) | Estrela 67% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 6 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 47% | Draw 25% | Estrela 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Chaves 1.56 / Estrela 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.944 / def 1.329 | Estrela attack 0.741 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Chaves (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Estrela xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chaves vs Estrela FAQs
What time does Chaves vs Estrela kick off?
Chaves vs Estrela kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Estrela?
Chaves 2 - 2 Estrela.
Where is Chaves vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Estrela part of?
Chaves vs Estrela is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 6) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 47% chance of winning, Estrela a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chaves and Estrela will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chaves vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chaves's attack at 0.94x the league average against Estrela's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estrela's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chaves's last 39 games and Estrela's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
47%
2.15
25%
3.98
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.72
1.16
Estrela xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
6%
16.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chaves vs Estrela Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Chaves and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Chaves and 1.16 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Estrela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chaves come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 0D 7L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Estrela sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Estrela carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Chaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chaves's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across their last 3 home games, a 0.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Estrela have taken 0.33 points per game from their last 3 away games (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estrela's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 3.14 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 0.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Early Season
Estrela
Early Season
Chaves (Home) vs Estrela (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chaves
Early Season
Estrela
Early Season
❓ Chaves vs Estrela Form FAQs
What form are Chaves and Estrela in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 0W 0D 7L in their last 7 games (0.00 PPG), while Estrela have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Estrela away?
Estrela's away record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 0.00 PPG; Estrela away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chaves
2
Draws
0
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Chaves vs Estrela H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Estrela?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Chaves have won 0, Estrela have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Estrela last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Estrela 1-1 Chaves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chaves at 100%, Estrela at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Chaves and 33% for Estrela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estrela in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chaves vs Estrela Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chaves and Estrela matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Chaves's games and 67% of Estrela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chaves and Estrela matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Chaves's matches and 33% of Estrela's.
Do Chaves and Estrela matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Chaves's recent matches and 67% of Estrela's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chaves and Estrela share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves and Estrela finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.56 xG and Estrela 1.16 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Estrela outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.94 / defence 1.33 against Estrela attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 47% | Draw 25% | Estrela 28%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 71%, Estrela 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Estrela's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Estrela arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chaves (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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