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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estoril and Tondela share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 21, as Estoril and Tondela drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 2.54 xG and Tondela 0.89 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Tondela outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.35 / defence 1.13 against Tondela attack 0.63 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 73% | Draw 16% | Tondela 11%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 65%, Tondela 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Tondela's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights