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Shock result as Estoril defy the odds to beat SC Braga 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat SC Braga 1-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.27 xG and SC Braga 2.14 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.15 / defence 1.23 against SC Braga attack 1.37 / defence 0.80, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 22% | Draw 21% | SC Braga 57%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Estoril win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 67%, SC Braga 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Braga's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Estoril winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights