🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SC Braga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Estoril 0-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 0.97 xG and SC Braga 1.30 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against SC Braga attack 0.99 / defence 0.73, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 28% | Draw 28% | SC Braga 44%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 65%, SC Braga 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Braga's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights