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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rio Ave defy the odds to beat Estoril 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave beat Estoril 1-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 2.00 xG and Rio Ave 1.05 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Rio Ave outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.20 / defence 1.10 against Rio Ave attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 59% | Draw 21% | Rio Ave 19%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Rio Ave win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 68%, Rio Ave 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.38 PPG, Rio Ave 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rio Ave win broke the near-deadlock. Rio Ave (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights