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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Rio Ave 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Rio Ave 2-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.38 xG and Rio Ave 0.95 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Rio Ave attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 47% | Draw 28% | Rio Ave 25%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 62%, Rio Ave 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.14 PPG, Rio Ave 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights