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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estoril and Nacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril and Nacional finished level at 1-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 0.93 xG and Nacional 1.06 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Nacional attack 0.91 / defence 0.76, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 29% | Draw 35% | Nacional 36%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 67%, Nacional 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Nacional's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.24 PPG, Nacional 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights