🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Estoril and Moreirense share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril and Moreirense finished level at 3-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.58 xG and Moreirense 1.34 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Moreirense outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Moreirense attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 43% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 32%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 65%, Moreirense 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Moreirense's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.28 PPG, Moreirense 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights