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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estoril and Moreirense share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril and Moreirense finished level at 2-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.30 xG and Moreirense 1.08 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Moreirense outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Moreirense attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 41% | Draw 28% | Moreirense 31%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 59%, Moreirense 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Moreirense's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights