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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sat 28 Dec 2024

18:00

Venue

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Estoril Win

41%

Estoril

2.42

28%

Draw

3.56

31%

Moreirense

3.27

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.0%

Home win

0 – 1

10.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.30

Estoril xG

Total xG

2.39

1.08

Moreirense xG

41%
28%
31%
EstorilDrawMoreirense

2.42

41%

Home win

3.56

28%

Draw

3.27

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.07

52%

BTTS No

1.94

Clean Sheet

34%

Estoril

2.95

27%

Moreirense

3.68

Win to Nil

14%

Estoril

7.15

8%

Moreirense

12.02

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.2 10.0 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1
1 12.0 13.0 7.0 2.5 0.7 0.1
2 7.8 8.5 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 3.4 3.7 2.0 0.7 0.2
4 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.303
λ Away (xG) 1.083
Total xG 2.386
League avg home goals 1.351
League avg away goals 1.108
Estoril attack strength 0.851
Estoril defence strength 1.070
Moreirense attack strength 0.913
Moreirense defence strength 1.133
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49