🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Estoril 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Estoril 1-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.27 xG and FC Porto 1.35 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against FC Porto attack 1.10 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 35% | Draw 26% | FC Porto 39%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 63%, FC Porto 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC Porto's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights