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Shock result as Famalicao defy the odds to beat Estoril 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Estoril 0-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.51 xG and Famalicao 1.42 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estoril fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.11 / defence 1.25 against Famalicao attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 40% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 36%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 69%, Famalicao 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Famalicao's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.30 PPG, Famalicao 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights