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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estoril and Estrela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril and Estrela finished level at 1-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.56 xG and Estrela 0.96 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Estrela attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 51% | Draw 25% | Estrela 23%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 71%, Estrela 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Estrela's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights