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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Mon 11 Aug 2025

18:45

Venue

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Estoril Win

51%

Estoril

1.95

25%

Draw

3.93

23%

Estrela

4.28

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

2 – 0

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.56

Estoril xG

Total xG

2.52

0.96

Estrela xG

51%
25%
23%
EstorilDrawEstrela

1.95

51%

Home win

3.93

25%

Draw

4.28

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.05

51%

BTTS No

1.95

Clean Sheet

38%

Estoril

2.62

21%

Estrela

4.75

Win to Nil

20%

Estoril

5.11

5%

Estrela

20.37

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.0 7.7 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 12.5 12.1 5.8 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 9.8 9.4 4.5 1.5 0.3 0.1
3 5.1 4.9 2.4 0.8 0.2
4 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.559
λ Away (xG) 0.963
Total xG 2.522
League avg home goals 1.417
League avg away goals 1.174
Estoril attack strength 1.058
Estoril defence strength 1.031
Estrela attack strength 0.795
Estrela defence strength 1.040
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34