🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Estoril run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Estrela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Estrela 4-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.21 xG and Estrela 0.78 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.96 / defence 1.12 against Estrela attack 0.57 / defence 0.97, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 46% | Draw 30% | Estrela 24%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 66%, Estrela 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Estrela's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.13 PPG, Estrela 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Estrela (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights