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Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat Estoril 0-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.30 xG and Casa Pia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Casa Pia outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Casa Pia attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 44% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 28%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 60%, Casa Pia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Casa Pia's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.00 PPG, Casa Pia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Casa Pia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights