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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Boavista 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Boavista 2-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.51 xG and Boavista 0.98 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Boavista attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 49% | Draw 27% | Boavista 24%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 61%, Boavista 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Boavista's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.11 PPG, Boavista 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights