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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estoril cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat AVS 3-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.50 xG and AVS 1.21 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against AVS attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 44% | Draw 25% | AVS 31%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 68%, AVS 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

AVS's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. AVS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights