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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Arouca 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Arouca 4-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.80 xG and Arouca 1.02 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arouca outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Arouca attack 0.85 / defence 1.46, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 55% | Draw 25% | Arouca 20%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 66%, Arouca 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.27 PPG, Arouca 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights