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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estoril run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Alverca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Alverca 4-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.59 xG and Alverca 1.12 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.15 / defence 1.05 against Alverca attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 48% | Draw 25% | Alverca 27%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 53%, Alverca 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Alverca's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.13 PPG, Alverca 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Alverca (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights