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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Torreense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat Torreense 2-0 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Final, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.24 xG and Torreense 0.97 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Torreense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.74 / defence 1.01 against Torreense attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 42% | Draw 29% | Torreense 29%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 0%, Torreense 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.00 PPG, Torreense 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Torreense shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights