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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Final

Kick-off

Thu 28 May 2026

20:00

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

42%

Casa Pia

2.35

29%

Draw

3.48

29%

Torreense

3.47

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

0 – 0

11.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.24

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.21

0.97

Torreense xG

42%
29%
29%
Casa PiaDrawTorreense

2.35

42%

Home win

3.48

29%

Draw

3.47

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

65%

Over 1.5

1.54

35%

Under 1.5

2.86

38%

Over 2.5

2.63

62%

Under 2.5

1.61

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.27

56%

BTTS No

1.79

Clean Sheet

38%

Casa Pia

2.63

29%

Torreense

3.46

Win to Nil

16%

Casa Pia

6.20

8%

Torreense

12.01

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.0 10.6 5.1 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 13.6 13.2 6.4 2.1 0.5 0.1
2 8.5 8.2 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 3.5 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1
4 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.3 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.241
λ Away (xG) 0.968
Total xG 2.209
League avg home goals 1.454
League avg away goals 1.129
Casa Pia attack strength 0.742
Casa Pia defence strength 1.008
Torreense attack strength 0.850
Torreense defence strength 1.150
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 68 / 0