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Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.20 xG and Sporting CP 1.55 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Sporting CP attack 1.27 / defence 0.86, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 29% | Draw 25% | Sporting CP 45%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 44%, Sporting CP 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sporting CP's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights