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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Fri 8 Aug 2025

20:15

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

29%

Casa Pia

3.39

25%

Draw

3.99

45%

Sporting CP

2.20

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.9%

Away win

1 – 2

9.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.20

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.75

1.55

Sporting CP xG

29%
25%
45%
Casa PiaDrawSporting CP

3.39

29%

Home win

3.99

25%

Draw

2.20

45%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.82

45%

BTTS No

2.23

Clean Sheet

21%

Casa Pia

4.72

30%

Sporting CP

3.32

Win to Nil

6%

Casa Pia

16.00

14%

Sporting CP

7.31

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.4 9.9 7.7 4.0 1.5 0.5
1 7.7 11.9 9.2 4.8 1.8 0.6
2 4.6 7.1 5.5 2.9 1.1 0.3
3 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.200
λ Away (xG) 1.551
Total xG 2.751
League avg home goals 1.403
League avg away goals 1.209
Casa Pia attack strength 0.989
Casa Pia defence strength 1.010
Sporting CP attack strength 1.269
Sporting CP defence strength 0.865
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34