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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 1-3 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.32 xG and Sporting CP 1.46 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.03 / defence 0.83 against Sporting CP attack 1.58 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 34% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 40%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 43%, Sporting CP 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Sporting CP's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights