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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Sun 9 Mar 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

34%

Casa Pia

2.96

26%

Draw

3.81

40%

Sporting CP

2.51

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.0%

Away win

1 – 2

8.7%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.32

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.78

1.46

Sporting CP xG

34%
26%
40%
Casa PiaDrawSporting CP

2.96

34%

Home win

3.81

26%

Draw

2.51

40%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.31

Clean Sheet

23%

Casa Pia

4.29

27%

Sporting CP

3.76

Win to Nil

8%

Casa Pia

12.69

11%

Sporting CP

9.42

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 9.0 6.6 3.2 1.2 0.3
1 8.2 12.0 8.7 4.2 1.5 0.4
2 5.4 7.9 5.8 2.8 1.0 0.3
3 2.4 3.5 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
4 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.324
λ Away (xG) 1.457
Total xG 2.781
League avg home goals 1.340
League avg away goals 1.108
Casa Pia attack strength 1.027
Casa Pia defence strength 0.832
Sporting CP attack strength 1.580
Sporting CP defence strength 0.962
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 58 / 58