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Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Casa Pia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.09 xG and SC Braga 1.52 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against SC Braga attack 1.28 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 27% | Draw 26% | SC Braga 47%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 46%, SC Braga 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Braga's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights