Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Thu 23 Apr 2026

19:00

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

SC Braga Win

27%

Casa Pia

3.70

26%

Draw

3.91

47%

SC Braga

2.11

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.2%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.2%

Away win

1 – 2

9.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.09

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.61

1.52

SC Braga xG

27%
26%
47%
Casa PiaDrawSC Braga

3.70

27%

Home win

3.91

26%

Draw

2.11

47%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

22%

Casa Pia

4.59

34%

SC Braga

2.96

Win to Nil

6%

Casa Pia

16.98

16%

SC Braga

6.25

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.4 11.2 8.5 4.3 1.7 0.5
1 8.0 12.2 9.3 4.7 1.8 0.5
2 4.3 6.6 5.0 2.6 1.0 0.3
3 1.6 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1
4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.086
λ Away (xG) 1.524
Total xG 2.610
League avg home goals 1.466
League avg away goals 1.137
Casa Pia attack strength 0.914
Casa Pia defence strength 1.049
SC Braga attack strength 1.278
SC Braga defence strength 0.810
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 63