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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Casa Pia defy the odds to beat SC Braga 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat SC Braga 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.81 xG and SC Braga 1.30 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against SC Braga attack 1.05 / defence 0.67, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 23% | Draw 29% | SC Braga 48%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Casa Pia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 44%, SC Braga 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

SC Braga's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Casa Pia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights