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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia and Rio Ave share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 34, as Casa Pia and Rio Ave drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.10 xG and Rio Ave 1.05 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.74 / defence 1.01 against Rio Ave attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 36% | Draw 30% | Rio Ave 34%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 45%, Rio Ave 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.10 PPG, Rio Ave 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights