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Nacional cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Casa Pia 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.20 xG and Nacional 1.08 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Nacional outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Nacional attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 39% | Draw 28% | Nacional 33%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 43%, Nacional 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nacional's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.30 PPG, Nacional 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights