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Casa Pia and Moreirense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 24, as Casa Pia and Moreirense drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.46 xG and Moreirense 1.48 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.01 / defence 1.27 against Moreirense attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 37% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 38%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, Moreirense 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Moreirense's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.18 PPG, Moreirense 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights