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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sun 1 Mar 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Moreirense Win

37%

Casa Pia

2.70

25%

Draw

4.04

38%

Moreirense

2.62

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

8.5%

Away win

2 – 1

8.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.46

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.95

1.48

Moreirense xG

37%
25%
38%
Casa PiaDrawMoreirense

2.70

37%

Home win

4.04

25%

Draw

2.62

38%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.68

40%

BTTS No

2.47

Clean Sheet

23%

Casa Pia

4.41

23%

Moreirense

4.31

Win to Nil

8%

Casa Pia

11.89

9%

Moreirense

11.30

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.3 7.8 5.8 2.9 1.1 0.3
1 7.7 11.4 8.5 4.2 1.6 0.5
2 5.6 8.3 6.2 3.1 1.1 0.3
3 2.7 4.1 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2
4 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.461
λ Away (xG) 1.484
Total xG 2.945
League avg home goals 1.547
League avg away goals 1.200
Casa Pia attack strength 1.011
Casa Pia defence strength 1.274
Moreirense attack strength 0.971
Moreirense defence strength 0.934
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 57