Casa Pia 1-1 Guimaraes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guimaraes at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Guimaraes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Casa Pia and Guimaraes meet at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guimaraes's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Guimaraes have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guimaraes's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Guimaraes are 0.50 PPG clear of Casa Pia in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Casa Pia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Guimaraes — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 42% versus Guimaraes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 45% | Guimaraes 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.86 xG and Guimaraes 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.868 / defence 1.012 | Guimaraes attack 0.998 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.194. Guimaraes's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Casa Pia games / 40 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 26% | Draw 30% | Guimaraes 44%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Guimaraes 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Casa Pia dominate the H2H record, yet Guimaraes are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Guimaraes as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guimaraes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 30% | Guimaraes 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Guimaraes | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 26% | Draw 30% | Guimaraes 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Casa Pia 0.86 / Guimaraes 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.868 / def 1.012 | Guimaraes attack 0.998 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Guimaraes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Guimaraes xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Guimaraes kick off?
Casa Pia vs Guimaraes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Guimaraes?
Casa Pia 1 - 1 Guimaraes.
Where is Casa Pia vs Guimaraes being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Guimaraes part of?
Casa Pia vs Guimaraes is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Guimaraes?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 26% chance of winning, Guimaraes a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guimaraes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Guimaraes?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Casa Pia and Guimaraes will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Guimaraes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Guimaraes?
Record (4 meetings): Casa Pia 2W | Draws 2 | Guimaraes 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and Guimaraes in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Guimaraes (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.87x the league average against Guimaraes's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guimaraes's attack (1.00x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guimaraes Win
26%
3.82
30%
3.37
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.06
1.21
Guimaraes xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.3 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Guimaraes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Guimaraes expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.21 for Guimaraes, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Guimaraes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Casa Pia have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 9D 19L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guimaraes's form line: 23W 6D 11L from 40 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Guimaraes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Guimaraes are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Casa Pia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Casa Pia have posted 0.85 PPG from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L).
On the road, Guimaraes have gone 10W 4D 6L from 20 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guimaraes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Casa Pia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Guimaraes are on 1.45 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Early Season
Guimaraes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Guimaraes in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Guimaraes have gone 23W 6D 11L in their last 40 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Guimaraes away?
Guimaraes's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.85 PPG; Guimaraes away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Guimaraes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Guimaraes in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guimaraes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Casa Pia
4
Draws
1
Guimaraes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Guimaraes?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 3, Guimaraes have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Guimaraes last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Guimaraes 0-1 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Guimaraes?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Guimaraes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 35%, Guimaraes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Casa Pia) and 45% (Guimaraes).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 55% of games; Guimaraes in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Guimaraes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Guimaraes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 50% of Guimaraes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Guimaraes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Casa Pia's recent games and 45% of Guimaraes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Guimaraes tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Guimaraes in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and Guimaraes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and Guimaraes finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.86 xG and Guimaraes 1.21 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Guimaraes attack 1.00 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 26% | Draw 30% | Guimaraes 44%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 45%, Guimaraes 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Guimaraes's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.