Casa Pia 1-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours GIL Vicente (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Casa Pia face GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GIL Vicente have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
GIL Vicente arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Casa Pia, 3 for GIL Vicente and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Casa Pia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 53% versus GIL Vicente 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 45% | GIL Vicente 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.83 xG and GIL Vicente 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.932 / defence 1.394 | GIL Vicente attack 0.965 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.302. GIL Vicente's defence strength of 0.680 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Casa Pia games / 47 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 17% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 59%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | GIL Vicente 1.69. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 60% | GIL Vicente 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 17% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Casa Pia 0.83 / GIL Vicente 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.932 / def 1.394 | GIL Vicente attack 0.965 / def 0.680 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.75
GIL Vicente xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Casa Pia 1 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente part of?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 17% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Casa Pia and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
Record (6 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 3W.
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.96x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
17%
5.88
24%
4.12
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.58
1.75
GIL Vicente xG
5.88
17%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
17%
5.76
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
3%
33.84
26%
3.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.75 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 14W 12D 21L from 47 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 19L across 47 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.23 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 6W 8D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.06 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or GIL Vicente away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.30 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
5
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
From 9 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 61%, GIL Vicente 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Casa Pia) and 39% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 35%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 26% of games; GIL Vicente in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 48% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Casa Pia's recent games and 39% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 14, as Casa Pia and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.83 xG and GIL Vicente 1.75 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.93 / defence 1.39 against GIL Vicente attack 0.96 / defence 0.68, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 17% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 59%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 45%, GIL Vicente 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.15 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.