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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sat 22 Feb 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

61%

Casa Pia

1.63

24%

Draw

4.19

15%

GIL Vicente

6.82

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.7%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

12.9%

Home win

1 – 1

10.7%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.75

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.48

0.73

GIL Vicente xG

61%
24%
15%
Casa PiaDrawGIL Vicente

1.63

61%

Home win

4.19

24%

Draw

6.82

15%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.32

57%

BTTS No

1.76

Clean Sheet

48%

Casa Pia

2.07

17%

GIL Vicente

5.76

Win to Nil

30%

Casa Pia

3.37

3%

GIL Vicente

39.27

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.4 6.1 2.2 0.5 0.1
1 14.7 10.7 3.9 0.9 0.2
2 12.9 9.4 3.4 0.8 0.1
3 7.5 5.5 2.0 0.5 0.1
4 3.3 2.4 0.9 0.2
5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.751
λ Away (xG) 0.727
Total xG 2.478
League avg home goals 1.349
League avg away goals 1.176
Casa Pia attack strength 1.071
Casa Pia defence strength 0.870
GIL Vicente attack strength 0.711
GIL Vicente defence strength 1.212
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56