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Shock result as FC Porto defy the odds to beat Casa Pia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.27 xG and FC Porto 1.23 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against FC Porto attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 38% | Draw 27% | FC Porto 35%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Porto win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 45%, FC Porto 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Porto's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Porto (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights