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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Sat 12 Apr 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

38%

Casa Pia

2.67

27%

Draw

3.70

35%

FC Porto

2.82

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.4%

Home win

0 – 1

10.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.27

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.50

1.23

FC Porto xG

38%
27%
35%
Casa PiaDrawFC Porto

2.67

38%

Home win

3.70

27%

Draw

2.82

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.97

49%

BTTS No

2.04

Clean Sheet

29%

Casa Pia

3.41

28%

FC Porto

3.56

Win to Nil

11%

Casa Pia

9.11

10%

FC Porto

10.04

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.2 10.1 6.2 2.5 0.8 0.2
1 10.4 12.8 7.9 3.2 1.0 0.2
2 6.6 8.1 5.0 2.0 0.6 0.2
3 2.8 3.5 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.271
λ Away (xG) 1.228
Total xG 2.499
League avg home goals 1.288
League avg away goals 1.177
Casa Pia attack strength 1.065
Casa Pia defence strength 0.928
FC Porto attack strength 1.125
FC Porto defence strength 0.926
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 62