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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia and Estoril share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 8, as Casa Pia and Estoril drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.44 xG and Estoril 1.40 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Estoril attack 1.08 / defence 1.33, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 38% | Draw 26% | Estoril 36%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 42%, Estoril 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Estoril's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.27 PPG, Estoril 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights