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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Fri 3 Oct 2025

20:15

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

38%

Casa Pia

2.65

26%

Draw

3.83

36%

Estoril

2.77

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.8%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.5%

Home win

1 – 0

8.4%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.44

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.84

1.40

Estoril xG

38%
26%
36%
Casa PiaDrawEstoril

2.65

38%

Home win

3.83

26%

Draw

2.77

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.72

42%

BTTS No

2.38

Clean Sheet

25%

Casa Pia

4.07

24%

Estoril

4.21

Win to Nil

9%

Casa Pia

10.78

9%

Estoril

11.65

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.8 8.2 5.7 2.7 0.9 0.3
1 8.4 11.8 8.3 3.9 1.4 0.4
2 6.0 8.5 5.9 2.8 1.0 0.3
3 2.9 4.1 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1
4 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.438
λ Away (xG) 1.403
Total xG 2.841
League avg home goals 1.263
League avg away goals 1.198
Casa Pia attack strength 0.855
Casa Pia defence strength 1.086
Estoril attack strength 1.079
Estoril defence strength 1.332
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41