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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estoril cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Casa Pia 1-3 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.57 xG and Estoril 1.27 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Estoril outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Estoril attack 1.17 / defence 1.26, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 45% | Draw 25% | Estoril 31%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 44%, Estoril 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Estoril's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.23 PPG, Estoril 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights