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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 31

Kick-off

Tue 29 Apr 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

45%

Casa Pia

2.25

25%

Draw

4.04

31%

Estoril

3.26

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.2%

Home win

2 – 1

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.57

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.84

1.27

Estoril xG

45%
25%
31%
Casa PiaDrawEstoril

2.25

45%

Home win

4.04

25%

Draw

3.26

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.32

Clean Sheet

28%

Casa Pia

3.55

21%

Estoril

4.83

Win to Nil

13%

Casa Pia

7.96

6%

Estoril

15.71

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.8 7.4 4.7 2.0 0.6 0.2
1 9.2 11.6 7.4 3.1 1.0 0.2
2 7.2 9.2 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 3.8 4.8 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2
5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.574
λ Away (xG) 1.266
Total xG 2.840
League avg home goals 1.277
League avg away goals 1.192
Casa Pia attack strength 0.978
Casa Pia defence strength 0.907
Estoril attack strength 1.171
Estoril defence strength 1.260
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 64 / 64