Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Benfica (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Casa Pia face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Monday 17 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Casa Pia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Casa Pia at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Casa Pia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Benfica in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Casa Pia.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Benfica have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 46% versus Benfica 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 43% | Benfica 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.15 xG and Benfica 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.888 / defence 1.004 | Benfica attack 1.177 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.151. Data: 35 Casa Pia games / 35 Benfica games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 32% | Draw 27% | Benfica 42%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Benfica 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 60% | Benfica 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Monday 17 Aug 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 32% | Draw 27% | Benfica 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Casa Pia 1.15 / Benfica 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.888 / def 1.004 | Benfica attack 1.177 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Benfica (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Benfica xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Benfica kick off?
Casa Pia vs Benfica kicked off at 19:15 on Monday 17 August 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia 0 - 7 Benfica.
Where is Casa Pia vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Benfica part of?
Casa Pia vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 32% chance of winning, Benfica a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Casa Pia and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Benfica?
Record (8 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 3 | Benfica 4W.
What form are Casa Pia and Benfica in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.89x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.74
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.51
1.36
Benfica xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.36 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 35 games, going 6W 13D 16L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.31 PPG from 35 outings (23W 12D 0L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Casa Pia's home form reads 3W 9D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.41 points per game from 17 outings (12W 5D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.17 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica in 60%.
Defensively: Benfica in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Benfica in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 6W 13D 16L in their last 35 games (0.89 PPG), while Benfica have gone 23W 12D 0L in their last 35 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.06 PPG; Benfica away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Benfica in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2026, when Benfica won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Benfica?
From 9 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Benfica have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 59%, Benfica 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Casa Pia) and 71% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 41%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Casa Pia's games and 59% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Casa Pia vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Casa Pia's recent games and 71% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Benfica tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Benfica in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Casa Pia 0-7 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.15 xG and Benfica 1.36 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.36 projection by 5.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Benfica attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 32% | Draw 27% | Benfica 42%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 43%, Benfica 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.