Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 19

Kick-off

Fri 23 Jan 2026

20:15

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

56%

Casa Pia

1.77

23%

Draw

4.36

21%

AVS

4.85

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

10.9%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

10.9%

Draw

2 – 0

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.81

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.81

1.00

AVS xG

56%
23%
21%
Casa PiaDrawAVS

1.77

56%

Home win

4.36

23%

Draw

4.85

21%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.89

47%

BTTS No

2.12

Clean Sheet

37%

Casa Pia

2.72

16%

AVS

6.13

Win to Nil

21%

Casa Pia

4.81

3%

AVS

29.75

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 0.2
1 10.9 10.9 5.4 1.8 0.5 0.1
2 9.9 9.9 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 6.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 0.2
4 2.7 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1
5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.813
λ Away (xG) 0.999
Total xG 2.812
League avg home goals 1.396
League avg away goals 1.278
Casa Pia attack strength 0.822
Casa Pia defence strength 1.164
AVS attack strength 0.671
AVS defence strength 1.580
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 52 / 52