Casa Pia vs AVS – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia and AVS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia and AVS finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.43 xG and AVS 0.83 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against AVS attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 51% | Draw 27% | AVS 22%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 29%, AVS 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

AVS's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.14 PPG, AVS 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AVS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights